Study Finds That 86 Percent Of Third Downs Are ‘Big Third Downs,’ Up 12 Percent From Last Year

A study released by the Pew Research Center on Monday suggests that “big third downs” are at an all-time high 86 percent this season, following a relatively stable 2024 in which only 74 percent of thirds were considered “big.” 

While analysts scramble to account for the shift, researchers at Pew showed that big third downs have risen steadily since 2010, when the figure had more or less plateaued at 28 percent. “Big thirds” then experienced a predictable spike in 2021 with the death of John Madden. But what accounts for this season’s record-breaking stat? 

Senior researcher Dr. Robert Kagan suggests it’s possible that we’re living in a third-down bubble due to what’s known as “broadcaster inflation.” Others around the league argue that reporters are becoming “too woke” by caring too much about third-down equality at the expense of actual real-world play. “Either way, they’re giving too many ‘big third downs’ to teams that have no chance of winning or teams whose wins will have zero impact on the league,” said Kagan, a 53-year-old PhD in research methodology. 

“Then again,” added Kagan, “maybe it’s just the NFL wanting us to get more excited about these games.” 

Kagan was quick to mention the 30-percent increase in the past five years of announcers claiming games were “on the line” without acknowledging, for example, that it’s the Jets playing the Titans. 

With so many “big third downs” flying around, some will wonder what’s wrong with the 14 percent of third downs that aren’t big. Are they “small”? According to Kagan, no. “Some thirds are ‘non-applicable’ (Cleveland), ‘surprising’ (Jags), or ‘ref-assisted’ (Chiefs). And then there are the melancholy Cardinals, who often go two-and-out. 

In a follow-up study, Kagan’s team revealed that 100 percent of fourth downs are “huge.”